Taking Chances

Today's Newsweek poll has Obama surging over McCain with an eleven point lead, 52% to 41%. This closely mirrors what Gallup's daily monitoring for the week has shown.

But the real significant item about the poll is this: "An astounding 86 percent of voters now say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States..." which leads to this: "Asked which ticket they thought was most likely to bring about change if elected, voters said Obama-Biden over McCain-Palin 52 percent to 37 percent. A month ago, Obama-Biden led by only five points, 47 percent to 42 percent."

This raises an interesting aspect to Obama's momentum as of late-- it's just as connected to the concept of change as it is to the spiralling economy.

Which suggests that all of these "the only thing that can save McCain is a terrorist attack" stories and their ilk that I'm reading all over the web might be missing a deeper, larger shift among the voters. If Obama's current trending is actually based, in part, on the powerful and inherent message of change he represents, it is far from certain a major foreign policy disaster at home or abroad would bring the Rovian jolt to the race McCain needs.

The dominating mood reflected by this Newsweek polling reminds me of an interchange I read from a Time magazine reporter recently talking to folks down in Northwest Missouri:

I soon gathered that six of the eight adults standing in that driveway planned to vote for Obama in November. Their support ranged from enthusiastic to reluctant. And of course, there's nothing scientific about one driveway. But I heard similar things throughout my trip. Among white voters, Obama appeared to be rising on a pile of empty wallets. Many folks in Lincoln County shared that impression.

"Who do you think will win around here?" I asked.

"Obama," Robbie Haggard answered flatly, and several others agreed.

"But Missouri's always been Republican," Pyle protested.

"I think Missouri's had about enough," Holly Haggard said.