tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38951986129222828432024-03-05T02:37:42.639-08:00Joe Justice Dailywelcome to a world where reality and facts are welcome.Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.comBlogger93125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-24650873336541443912009-08-13T21:23:00.000-07:002009-08-13T22:51:54.966-07:00Death Panel Resurrects Joe Justice<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-MSlLo0E-C2LOCpvoN85gSUTuBq7qrEJy24sOVo6k2wZ6W5H1VKEg15hrAPEiCxHupBu3CvN5CUwDbomxwI1XnUpiBh-Cmy8ZOOBX4VdZJN1WvoUyifyOeGFIGvDPu0nsn2RHNhjJVI4/s1600-h/19thompson1.jpeg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 259px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-MSlLo0E-C2LOCpvoN85gSUTuBq7qrEJy24sOVo6k2wZ6W5H1VKEg15hrAPEiCxHupBu3CvN5CUwDbomxwI1XnUpiBh-Cmy8ZOOBX4VdZJN1WvoUyifyOeGFIGvDPu0nsn2RHNhjJVI4/s400/19thompson1.jpeg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5369671450976472738" /></a>10 months to the day! The DAY!<div><br /></div><div>Even Fred Thompson is exited.<br /><div><br /></div><div>And the impossible has occurred. After witnessing crazy white person upon crazy white person avail themselves of handheld microphones at various town halls <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">across</span> America, and after seeing Sarah <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1">Palin</span> start putting made-up death panel footnotes--FOOTNOTES!--in her <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2">Facebook</span> wall comments, the time has finally come to get back on the bucking horse of shiny bullshit that is blogging and get to work.<div><br /></div><div>First up, my former Senator (and for a time, boss, as intern) Chuck <span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3">Grassley</span>.</div><div><br /></div><div>Chuck! You used to be so much fun! Folksy and funny. Closeted populist. </div><div><br /></div><div>The guy used to walk around his Senate office joking, "Anybody mad at me?"</div><div><br /></div><div>What happened, girlfriend?</div><div><br /></div><div>Methinks it's a little thing called Jesus. Well. More like Jesus and his magical hold on the GOP, a.k.a. defensive, uncomfortable white people.</div><div><br /></div><div>So, go back about 9 years. It all starts with a very special day for the Grassley interns, a day that happens at the very end of your tenure as, basically, a white kid who sits in the auto-pen closet and signs letters to constituents back home for a few hours a day. Anyway, Chuck takes the interns to the Senate cafeteria for lunch. And at said lunch, yours truly, a government major at Georgetown and all around Iowa Boy made the big mistake of asking Chuck whether he would charactize his conservative philosophy as effectively a Midwestern form of libertarian populism.</div><div><br /></div><div>Chuck did not like this.</div><div><br /></div><div>I'm back, kids. And this time I'm going to edit less and write harder. You betcha.</div><div><br /></div><div>More to come.</div></div></div>Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-1025240762113969082008-11-13T11:27:00.001-08:002008-11-13T11:29:32.125-08:00Victory<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKU1RqEv5s3m7C2shovOXcx5hoG-FK5j-vipFbph-2cfcGDssoCJlUnT-JsCyLn-1d0uXupvQ2JUjaGoVUVoj6MbJvMGwwHMIRI_MbnvBIfGKUJAN9f7tfxsmSHPry5xUUVCWNByMglu8/s1600-h/obamalg.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5268226183152511538" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 341px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKU1RqEv5s3m7C2shovOXcx5hoG-FK5j-vipFbph-2cfcGDssoCJlUnT-JsCyLn-1d0uXupvQ2JUjaGoVUVoj6MbJvMGwwHMIRI_MbnvBIfGKUJAN9f7tfxsmSHPry5xUUVCWNByMglu8/s400/obamalg.jpg" border="0" /></a>Transition time, in more ways than one. <p></p>More thoughts on the President-elect, Proposition 8, and the state of the Parties to come.Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-26250714791024786602008-10-29T14:16:00.000-07:002008-10-29T14:19:47.063-07:00Turf WarsRachel Maddow did an awesome job last evening explaning the state of the race using a football field and some intelligent analysis:</p><object width="425" height="349"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/htFnDxZ3BEc&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0&color1=0x2b405b&color2=0x6b8ab6&border=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/htFnDxZ3BEc&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0&color1=0x2b405b&color2=0x6b8ab6&border=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="349"></embed></object></p>Sorry for the long intro, this clip has the best sound quality. Skip to 2:15 for the story.Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-59513680926312375632008-10-29T09:25:00.000-07:002008-10-29T13:20:30.378-07:00State of Mind<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh2U9ttNHuiKYgVHDnl-CPapic0fahTV6U9BYUEcdOXioxk7r2pDL1UGt-WahuQDZ5Op4BYT2yMPUSmrRW4U-OMln2vIWT_CYnShywa4HtsIIamWfBNeUEMgjnj6RPDbKDnO4Fb-8lGdk/s1600-h/state+of+mind.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5262631750374771266" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 267px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh2U9ttNHuiKYgVHDnl-CPapic0fahTV6U9BYUEcdOXioxk7r2pDL1UGt-WahuQDZ5Op4BYT2yMPUSmrRW4U-OMln2vIWT_CYnShywa4HtsIIamWfBNeUEMgjnj6RPDbKDnO4Fb-8lGdk/s400/state+of+mind.jpg" border="0" /></a>The Republicans and Drudge Report and Fox, etc., want you to focus on national numbers. They are citing "internal numbers" but will not reveal their specifics. They are using totally discredited folks like Dick Morris or Zogby to scare you.<br /><div></div><br /><div>Most importantly, though, they may want you to forget we elect our President via a crazy thing called the Electoral College. You know, the mechanism that made all of those Al Gore votes meaningless... <p></p>State-by-state, John McCain is just not doing well. It's irrefutable. So breathe deep and stay strong.</div><br /><div><strong><u>Nevada</u></strong>: the state's most respected political reporter says early voting for the Democrats is so overwhelming, the Republicans now have<a href="http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/the_daily_ralston_gop_faces_al.php"> "an almost impossible task."</a></div><br /><div><strong><u>Ohio</u></strong>: numerous polls show Obama pulling away--ever so slightly--from McCain.</div><br /><div><strong><u>Florida</u></strong>: Republican Governor Charlie Crist (a sensible Republican, who knew?) extended early voting hours and opened up early voting for 12 hours this weekend, providing a huge boost to Obama's intense early voting efforts there. Multiple polls show the race in a dead heat.</div><br /><div><u><strong>Colorado</strong></u>: McCain has all but abandoned the state. Obama's lead has grown in recent days.</div><br /><div><strong><u>Iowa</u></strong>: Obama has been in the lead in every single poll taken since he won the nomination. The majority of polls have him leading by double digits.</div><br /><div><strong><u>New Mexico</u></strong>: All recent polls have Obama anywhere from 50% to 55%.</div><br /><div><u><strong>Pennsylvania</strong></u>: Despite the nervous chatter from people like Ed Rendell, polling in the past few weeks has been great, showing double digit leads. A poll out today shows Obama up 11 points. The average for Obama in the last 10 polls of this state has him at 52% support.</div><br /><div>The reason I focus on these states above, is that if Barack Obama wins the Kerry states (of which Obama currently leads in all of them, and which includes Pennsylvania), and if Obama also adds Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico he is President of the United States. <p></p>This doesn't even consider or include Virginia, Florida, Ohio, or Missouri-- all states Obama has a strong chance to carry. Also, it doesn't even include Indiana or North Carolina, states where Obama has superior campaign staff operations and where polls show dead heats.</div><br /><div>So the big number I keep returning to is 50. McCain and the Republicans may forget this, but in a two man race, if one person has 50 or above, they win. The opponent up against someone with 50%, well, they can't win. No chance. Just because we currently have a President who doesn't like facts or math, doesn't mean math is dead. Trust me: math lives. <p></p>The media seems to be ignoring this fact as well. Obama doesn't <em>need </em>to win by 10 points in every state. It would be great, and in many states his strong leads will be excellent buffers against odd factors like race, fraud or error. But in all of these states where Barack Obama is polling at or near 50%, the chances for McCain are not just remote, they are impossible. Even if McCain can surge up from his low 40s in these states, if Obama hits 50%, Obama gets the electoral votes.</div><br /><div>I'm nervous as hell. Fighting for anything worth winning will make you nervous. But I just don't see the McCain-Palin strategy right now. Until McCain can pull out a poll (non-internet and non-Zogby) showing Obama behind in either Pennsylvania or Virginia, I'm not nervous with fear. I'm nervous with excitement. </p><span style="color:#cc0000;">Update (1:15pm PST)</span>: New battleground numbers from CNN/Time confirm the pretty stable situation at the state level for Obama-- </div><div></div><div>Colorado: Obama 53, McCain 45</div><div>Florida: Obama 51, McCain 47</div><div>Georgia: McCain 52, Obama 47</div><div>Missouri: McCain 50, Obama 48</div><div>Virginia: Obama 53, McCain 44 </div>Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-63661494318347080642008-10-24T14:38:00.000-07:002008-10-24T15:15:23.061-07:00Closing Days<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihWWdqUH3WSaQAHkEqHFoMMOzOB2kNaSfypFJFLTypKSlmM4fbNa-5efGS5-nczFifG87EPKYpgESUGXnl0uuhYLdf2PDezALmIa4Ee0DCmIEBF1zd4FuhfwucQoOk-XnezemXPig-g5A/s1600-h/obama+walk.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5260838712309185810" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 266px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihWWdqUH3WSaQAHkEqHFoMMOzOB2kNaSfypFJFLTypKSlmM4fbNa-5efGS5-nczFifG87EPKYpgESUGXnl0uuhYLdf2PDezALmIa4Ee0DCmIEBF1zd4FuhfwucQoOk-XnezemXPig-g5A/s400/obama+walk.jpg" border="0" /></a>Barack Obama takes the stage in Leesburg, Virginia on October 22, 2008.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:85%;">[courtesy of a diary on <em>Daily Kos</em>]Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-52879088755095269532008-10-24T11:32:00.000-07:002008-10-28T12:26:57.653-07:00Crashing, Burning<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqCbD-38mtYE0EosX2zWog5VkhLH2XssuZeRF7FSgJi4xKcy1VpNSyybq8qdXpVsN3T1ZXdbLMKO_Tukqi35spJR2fkqhaAav0YusBl8cNbp3Vy5p9Ad9BToDqCfX5z0z8opk3cHd29Cg/s1600-h/McCain%2520Bush%2520Hug.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5260792134505151554" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 300px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 359px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqCbD-38mtYE0EosX2zWog5VkhLH2XssuZeRF7FSgJi4xKcy1VpNSyybq8qdXpVsN3T1ZXdbLMKO_Tukqi35spJR2fkqhaAav0YusBl8cNbp3Vy5p9Ad9BToDqCfX5z0z8opk3cHd29Cg/s400/McCain%2520Bush%2520Hug.jpg" border="0" /></a>Always an interesting read, <a href="http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/"><em>Atlantic </em>blogger Marc Ambinder</a> wrote a post recently that Sarah Palin might be heading off the McCain reservation with 2012 in mind. One of his examples of her awkward breaks with McCain was the comment she made in several speeches that Obama was "palling around with terrorists," which apparently was not a McCain campaign line. <div><p></p>Randy Scheunemann, who acts as McCain's chief foreign policy adviser e-mailed Ambinder this about the Palin post: <p></p><span style="color:#cc0000;">Just read your post. This is on the record. This is cleared by HQ. It is a fact that Barack Obama was palling around with terrorists. It was a fact before Governor Palin said it in a fully vetted speech and it is fact today. It is bullshit to claim or write anything else</span><span style="color:#cc0000;">.</span> <p></p>And <strong>that</strong>, my friends, is why John McCain will never be President of the United States. <p></p>McCain pals around with pathetic thugs who don't get it.</div>Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-87355470069196070732008-10-24T10:07:00.000-07:002008-10-28T12:54:18.526-07:00Robin Hood or Sheriff of Nottingham?<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX4d6sWwlaDX_Xw2PHJbiR-VEsYMg2UjxAzHrFjX677GtdDvxaGLTvkze2F7XeO9FlXM14l5OW52pgpi2doi5o7Io3l6FM5ITZqh8iQfzyRGPyqrB8fwEUHp_xaosM1iguaRPATf4Ktkc/s1600-h/02-10-2008_n1a_10Obama_GM22BA6IE_1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5260770350991465026" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 350px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 264px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX4d6sWwlaDX_Xw2PHJbiR-VEsYMg2UjxAzHrFjX677GtdDvxaGLTvkze2F7XeO9FlXM14l5OW52pgpi2doi5o7Io3l6FM5ITZqh8iQfzyRGPyqrB8fwEUHp_xaosM1iguaRPATf4Ktkc/s400/02-10-2008_n1a_10Obama_GM22BA6IE_1.jpg" border="0" /></a>John McCain speaking to about 4,000 supporters (kinda small for the closing days of a campaign, no?) in Denver today: <div><p></p>"Senator Obama may say he's trying to soak the rich, but it's the middle class who are going to get put through the wringer, because a lot of his promised tax increase misses the target." <p></p>The problem for Republicans is that this just doesn't make obvious sense, and might be why voters aren't biting. McCain is saying that if Obama taxes the wealthier folks to provide relief to the lower earning working class, then this <em>hurts</em> the working class? <p></p>I think McCain is trying to have it both ways: Obama will raise everyone's taxes, but Obama will spread the wealth from the top to the bottom. <p></p>Which is it? </div>Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-12724317475899328662008-10-22T15:04:00.000-07:002008-10-22T15:07:17.365-07:00Lipstick and Leather Can't DisguiseThis is riveting and worth the entire view. The tail end is the best moment.<br /><br />This country is too great to have such a non-serious, arrogant person trying to be it's Vice President. There is nothing "elitist" about wanting leaders to know the history and facts of the United States. Even in "Non-Real America" here in Los Angeles, I do know what the Constitution says.<br /><br /><object width="425" height="349"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/VHB6APpaH5k&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0&color1=0x2b405b&color2=0x6b8ab6&border=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/VHB6APpaH5k&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0&color1=0x2b405b&color2=0x6b8ab6&border=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="349"></embed></object>Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-39020014997627034402008-10-22T10:15:00.000-07:002008-10-22T15:18:46.727-07:00GOProject Runway<img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5260031200585237042" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZnyfH3ny7o__7k4jWd1vDq4p-jobb42BJvaSj7Go3AfRJg4ke6amlSPHz25Olr-4UH0_tL0tjzN4kLCsHNQRZnlfez2LN7vaT3ykajM3eqwYFmsgxPrT9DuzFTCBdD2B0_a_Jxhai6wc/s400/mccain-palin-460_800989c.jpg" border="0" /><br />Who can blame Sarah Palin and her ridiculously expensive clothes?<br /><div><br /><p></p>Dealing with murderous dictators is easy, but telling the sales folks at Neiman's "No" to a $2,500 jacket is next to impossible... right?<br /><p></p>I don't mind if the campaign wants to dress her all nice and pretty, but any rational person with actual "American values" would see those price tags and raise an objection. If you can't control your own image, then how can you be respected? What does it say about a woman who doesn't care about something like that? And truly, it's not as if Palin was exerting her brain power thinking through major policy issues or anything.<br /><p></p>Then again, Palin never blinks, so...<br /><p></p>The funniest aspect to me of all of this clothes hoopla is that Michelle Obama (you know, the wife of That One, who hates America!) wears <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25280708/">reasonably priced dresses women can actually afford</a>, while the supposed down-home hockey mom with a heart of gold requires Valentino on her outback back. Go figure. </div><br /><div>Then again... Palin might be a victim of just running with a bad fashion crowd-- her closest clothes mentors are the Money Drunk McCains-- <a href="http://www.vanityfair.com/online/politics/2008/09/cindy-mccains-300000-outfit.html">Cindy was wearing $300,000</a> worth of goods on one of the Republican convention nights, and John McCain <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/isabel-wilkinson/a-week-in-john-mccains-sh_b_115692.html">wears $520 Ferragamo loafers</a>.</div><br /><div></div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixdYF4jT1F9RfOuVjStilweitpKp5QGwdVzt-cQ7fSwF8oPgf7FcL7JZwuyN7xqSRGBd9t-OClBXGoeqoJRF8cO2nQsDCJNZ1jKShFw7bU8ArtlAOGJCu9NfL-3Sm-05NGYfaof6eRGjc/s1600-h/610x.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5260033755139116338" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixdYF4jT1F9RfOuVjStilweitpKp5QGwdVzt-cQ7fSwF8oPgf7FcL7JZwuyN7xqSRGBd9t-OClBXGoeqoJRF8cO2nQsDCJNZ1jKShFw7bU8ArtlAOGJCu9NfL-3Sm-05NGYfaof6eRGjc/s400/610x.jpg" border="0" /></a><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Update</span>: Oops. I guess Governor Palin was good at skimming funds off the top even before she met Cindy. Palin has been <a href="http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/10/palin_family_plan.html">billing the State of Alaska taxpayers for her children's travel for many months</a>. You know, it's really not a luxury unless someone else pays for it, right?</div>Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-18861701391335837192008-10-21T11:43:00.001-07:002008-10-21T11:55:36.941-07:00Darn That Creeping Socialism<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHPMSeQIwgZfUNnkwOW-OGKtWOC0emOH_OGxAbuwl6gKcM3lHw7kniVqfJkh8m_mVcGwCgnWsNwzeOy9pwh5svvcAGkUg5Xhwzt3Wr2Ndnq628cz01UAIBe6jibuF5aitZ2lsbrrTgLLQ/s1600-h/wisconsin+rally.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5259682736183132818" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHPMSeQIwgZfUNnkwOW-OGKtWOC0emOH_OGxAbuwl6gKcM3lHw7kniVqfJkh8m_mVcGwCgnWsNwzeOy9pwh5svvcAGkUg5Xhwzt3Wr2Ndnq628cz01UAIBe6jibuF5aitZ2lsbrrTgLLQ/s400/wisconsin+rally.jpg" border="0" /></a>Various reports from CNN's John King, ABC's George Stephanopulous and others indicate that John McCain's campaign is decreasing its efforts in the following states:<br /><div><p></p>Colorado (9 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10), New Hampshire (4), Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5)<br /><p></p>The margins in these states vary, but Obama has held consistent leads in them for weeks.<br /><p></p>The total electoral vote count for these 5 states is 35 votes. Of the 5, Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado went for Bush in 2004. So, if you add these 35 votes and Pennsylvania to Obama's base of strong blue states, Obama wins the Presidency (and this is even without Obama winning in Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida--remarkable).<br /><p></p>Look for abject denials of McCain abandonment from low level state officials, and even from the campaign itself. But watch the ad money in these states, as well as candidate visits to see the truth. Even the McCain campaign admits that it is not spending any additional money in Wisconsin and New Hampshire, and will simply spread the money already allocated into a few more days of ads.<br /><p></p>The reality on the ground, as early voting begins in many states, is that McCain is running out of options.</div>Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-67517585366737362682008-10-20T12:42:00.000-07:002008-10-20T16:08:55.711-07:0015 Days to GoUsing current polling and my fortunate, dual Joe Six-pack/Plumber political instinct, here is the current JJD Electoral College map (with my most conservative estimates made). Blue states are most likely Obama states. Yellow states are potential pick-ups. All in, Obama is already at 273 electoral votes with this map, surpassing the needed 270. The amazing aspect to this 273 number is that Obama arrives there without Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Missouri, which are all strong potential wins for him (and listed in descending order of likelihood to win). <p></p>All told, with the national polling at about 5+ points for Obama, and with the extremely good state polling news (he's consitently ahead in Virginia and even more ahead in Pennsylvania) Obama is sitting in a very comfortable driver's seat, especially if he wants to win big enough to avoid the vote machine problems and other shenanigans the GOP pulls out every time. In fact, with the various state combinations available to Obama, it is hard to see how McCain can pull this off unless he sweeps Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania. <p></p>That's a tall order for an angry old guy. </p><object type="application/x-shockwave-flash" height="292" width="450" data="http://scoreboard.dailykos.com/map/electionEmbed.swf?autoPlayOn=1&mapMode=President&mapView=election¤tElectionYear=2008&predictionMode=1&predictionString=0,0,0,0,1,3,1,1,1,3,3,1,0,1,3,1,0,0,0,1,1,1,1,1,0,3,0,0,3,3,1,1,1,3,3,3,0,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,1,0,1,0&splitPredictionString=1,1,0,0,0&rootDirectory=http://scoreboard.dailykos.com/map/"><param name="movie" value="http://scoreboard.dailykos.com/map/electionEmbed.swf?autoPlayOn=1&mapMode=President&mapView=election¤tElectionYear=2008&predictionMode=1&predictionString=0,0,0,0,1,3,1,1,1,3,3,1,0,1,3,1,0,0,0,1,1,1,1,1,0,3,0,0,3,3,1,1,1,3,3,3,0,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,1,0,1,0&splitPredictionString=1,1,0,0,0&rootDirectory=http://scoreboard.dailykos.com/map/" /></object><br /><br /></p><span style="color:#cc0000;">Update</span>: John King on <em>CNN</em> said late this afternoon that McCain campaign sources consider both Iowa and New Mexico as battlegrounds already lost to Obama. The sources also conclude that Colorado is all but lost to Obama (which is interesting because they sent Palin there tonight). King reports that the McCain campaign is deciding to strongly contest Pennsylvania as part of their victory strategy. Polling for weeks in Pennsylvania has shown Obama with a 8-10 point lead. On a state-by-state level, McCain-Palin is slowly losing good options.Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-81591359161919352932008-10-20T11:33:00.000-07:002008-10-20T11:52:43.877-07:00Group Think<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGdpownMqbqqrXEeiV0VKHAC16NbM0ZnONmMUuU-yIUlmm8MOIb5zieaHtLn8vPEohK63dOI2SLm6bzNDwtgptFDqeMYSV8IOZp8CXWOgZZeV_LwTQ7hfu5UEOhD0p0l9fjNkxaDcKCKM/s1600-h/09obama_wideweb__470x313,0.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5259310412075211634" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGdpownMqbqqrXEeiV0VKHAC16NbM0ZnONmMUuU-yIUlmm8MOIb5zieaHtLn8vPEohK63dOI2SLm6bzNDwtgptFDqeMYSV8IOZp8CXWOgZZeV_LwTQ7hfu5UEOhD0p0l9fjNkxaDcKCKM/s400/09obama_wideweb__470x313,0.jpg" border="0" /></a>You may recall, all three of you, a recent<a href="http://joejusticedaily.blogspot.com/2008/10/flips-and-fries.html"> post I wrote describing Barack Obama </a>as the staid and steady institution (he as the Arch) when compared to flimsy Sarah Palin (she as the floating riverboat McDonald's).<br /><div></div><br /><div>Well <a href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/The_crowd_gap.html?showall">here's one more </a>St. Louis-based contrasting of images for you:</div><br /><div></div><div>Barack Obama attracted 80,000-100,000 citizens to hear him speak under the Arch this weekend (and another 75,000 in Kansas City, Missouri).</div><br /><div>This morning, John McCain attracted 2,000 in suburban St. Louis.</div>Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-89141404805960619932008-10-17T14:05:00.001-07:002008-10-17T14:18:04.668-07:00Leading Print Vindicators<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiA4NcM5OWUzk5T2yZI9W2n1uMEBLhZTREeW6qIeZZ5yxECWBpc9mmSETEai3S9RtR5GBKvjuqvdyRMzNn2kCVS6LKSZ-J3KFE1YJ-22dRiG9kMeI3C8t9oDh7MizJsWOMQUr_kPVjGFs/s1600-h/flags+BO.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5258234564278848162" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiA4NcM5OWUzk5T2yZI9W2n1uMEBLhZTREeW6qIeZZ5yxECWBpc9mmSETEai3S9RtR5GBKvjuqvdyRMzNn2kCVS6LKSZ-J3KFE1YJ-22dRiG9kMeI3C8t9oDh7MizJsWOMQUr_kPVjGFs/s400/flags+BO.bmp" border="0" /></a>Their influence waning, the great beasts of print media are looking to the future.<br /><div></div><br /><div>Senator Barack Obama is starting to rack up some impressive newspaper nods: <p></p><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/16/AR2008101603436.html?hpid=opinionsbox1"><strong>The Washington Post</strong></a></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">...Mr. Obama's temperament is unlike anything we've seen on the national stage in many years. He is deliberate but not indecisive; eloquent but a master of substance and detail; preternaturally confident but eager to hear opposing points of view. He has inspired millions of voters of diverse ages and races, no small thing in our often divided and cynical country. We think he is the right man for a perilous moment.</span> </div><br /><div><a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/editorials/la-ed-endorse19-2008oct19,0,5198206.story"><strong>The Los Angeles Times</strong></a></div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Our nation has never before had a candidate like Obama, a man born in the 1960s, of black African and white heritage, raised and educated abroad as well as in the United States, and bringing with him a personal narrative that encompasses much of the American story but that, until now, has been reflected in little of its elected leadership. The excitement of Obama's early campaign was amplified by that newness. But as the presidential race draws to its conclusion, it is Obama's character and temperament that come to the fore. It is his steadiness. His maturity.</span></div><br /><div><a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-chicago-tribune-endorsement,0,1371034.story"><strong>Chicago Tribune</strong></a></div><br /><div></div><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Many Americans say they're uneasy about Obama. He's pretty new to them.We can provide some assurance. We have known Obama since he entered politics a dozen years ago. We have watched him, worked with him, argued with him as he rose from an effective state senator to an inspiring U.S. senator to the Democratic Party's nominee for president.We have tremendous confidence in his intellectual rigor, his moral compass and his ability to make sound, thoughtful, careful decisions. He is ready.</span></div><br /><div>Allegedly coming Sunday:</div><div></div><div><em>The New York Times</em></div>Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-89099197388675053452008-10-17T13:52:00.000-07:002008-10-17T14:02:26.374-07:00Left Coast(ing)<a href="http://www.legendsofamerica.com/postcards-pictures-of/can5-californiagreetings2.jpg"><img style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="http://www.legendsofamerica.com/postcards-pictures-of/can5-californiagreetings2.jpg" border="0" /></a>Our recent heat wave isn't just weather-related... today SurveyUSA has a California poll out:<br /><div><br /><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">Obama 59%</span><br /></div><div><span style="color:#cc0000;">McCain 35%</span></div><br /><div>Which isn't the biggest news in the world, obviously. However, the 24 point margin does strongly suggest --if the number holds, which I suspect it just might-- that Obama will have some significant Golden State help in keeping the national popular vote total close enough to hopefully prevent a "Bush 2000" scenario of an Electoral Vote win but popular vote loss.</div><br /><div>Keep in mind that in 2004, John Kerry won California by only 10 points, 54% to Bush's 44%. And in 2000, Al Gore didn't fare much better margin wise, beating Bush by 11 points, 53% to 42%.</div><br /><div>Something to keep in mind: 60% in California is a huge number... even for a Democrat.</div></div>Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-42184183177511481552008-10-17T11:16:00.001-07:002008-10-17T11:17:47.550-07:00Nothing from NothingLife gets in the way and I haven't posted in two days. <br /><br />How many posts? Zero.<br /><br />Senator McCain is shocked.<br /><br /><object width="425" height="349"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/DhX13OzHfEs&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0&color1=0x2b405b&color2=0x6b8ab6&border=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/DhX13OzHfEs&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0&color1=0x2b405b&color2=0x6b8ab6&border=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="349"></embed></object><br /><br />More soon.Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-21667571474700644172008-10-15T10:53:00.000-07:002008-10-15T11:17:59.655-07:00Assumption HighJohn McCain made a very big assumption in his campaign for President, one that seems to be at the core of his consistent failure to connect with voters: he assumed everyone knew who he was.<br /><br />Just because you've been around forever doesn't mean people know you. I still don't have any idea why McCain wants to be President. Saying you put Country First is not a platform for anything. It's actually uninformative and silly. Most Americans expect their President to put Country First. It's almost as if McCain's motto was "America Forever" or something. <br /><br />So... because John McCain has not offered up any original ideas nor an overarching vision for America and because he no longer looks like any shade of maverick but rather just plain shady, the guy has a huge task ahead of him tonight.Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-51142344797118371852008-10-14T16:12:00.000-07:002008-10-14T16:23:20.571-07:00Stronger<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3eUZhlTTDbISJWLvkGqACDB4ZLwv5_AyJ56G44Xw-hBPdRwDFFAoEuf6HbrU2kjwE3WOw8IXJSrbncLL4gdENx1UfLOhj42AyX_cQT0O-l8za1rt2jTG431Pz2_KL8EdO49mNJVR4Mb0/s1600-h/obama3.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5257153806899901186" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3eUZhlTTDbISJWLvkGqACDB4ZLwv5_AyJ56G44Xw-hBPdRwDFFAoEuf6HbrU2kjwE3WOw8IXJSrbncLL4gdENx1UfLOhj42AyX_cQT0O-l8za1rt2jTG431Pz2_KL8EdO49mNJVR4Mb0/s400/obama3.jpg" border="0" /></a><span style="color:#cc0000;"><span style="color:#330000;">Barack Obama is up 14 points in </span><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/15/us/politics/15poll.html?hp"><span style="color:#ff6600;">today's <em>New York Times</em>/CBS poll</span></a><span style="color:#ff6600;">:</span> </span><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#cc0000;"></span></strong></div><br /><div><strong><span style="color:#cc0000;">Obama-Biden 53%</span></strong> </div><div><div><strong><span style="color:#cc0000;">McCain-Palin 39%</span></strong></div><br /><div><span style="color:#330000;">Obama made huge gains with independents and white voters, and consolidated self-identified former Clinton supporters.</span></div><br /><div><span style="color:#330000;"></span></div><span style="color:#330000;">It's safe to say he has a sustained, solid wind at his back for tomorrow's debate. Hopefully he'll use this to turn in his best debate performance yet.</span><br /><br /><div></div></div>Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-40527794182715977882008-10-14T12:44:00.000-07:002008-10-14T12:51:38.626-07:00Department of Slime<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/14/mccain-transition-chief-a_n_134595.html"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5257099453470045394" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsFPGTmSl4w42cmJlFQb97STx_86N-GrDDrWtGCWSq8pSsM30U4bMiVd4-8AaCABYoFJzloQD4aaYMEZqkFLoDJk3ftu1VkIfQjlaC2Eh8efi1VnlQRnthmOioh1uI9FJGNvumbdC7sUI/s400/mccain.jpg" border="0" />Huffington Post </a>is reporting that the man tapped to be in charge of McCain's most-likely-not-going-to-happen-please transition to the White House was a lobbyist for Saddam Hussein. <div><p></p><span style="font-size:85%;color:#000099;">William Timmons, the Washington lobbyist who John McCain has named to head his presidential transition team, aided an influence effort on behalf of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein to ease international sanctions against his regime. <p></p>The two lobbyists who Timmons worked closely with over a five year period on the lobbying campaign later either pleaded guilty to or were convicted of federal criminal charges that they had acted as unregistered agents of Saddam Hussein's government. <p></p>During the same period beginning in 1992, Timmons worked closely with the two lobbyists, Samir Vincent and Tongsun Park, on a previously unreported prospective deal with the Iraqis in which they hoped to be awarded a contract to purchase and resell Iraqi oil. Timmons, Vincent, and Park stood to share at least $45 million if the business deal went through. <p></p>Timmons' activities occurred in the years following the first Gulf War, when Washington considered Iraq to be a rogue enemy state and a sponsor of terrorism. His dealings on behalf of the deceased Iraqi leader stand in stark contrast to the views his current employer held at the time.</span><span style="color:#000000;"> <p></p>Brilliant. Now... while the media even mention this?</span></div>Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-69147838218411787752008-10-14T11:10:00.000-07:002008-10-14T11:21:58.363-07:00Ready to Go<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8b0Bz4mFDC9AZ-xIW9vLE7e6MmAemA1NhEKmuKEgSybxtCtNw-pETHR5dwtKOHFX8o4PGNbxBIvIQAsf9J4vF5UcOPg8avKIhnrCmvTR47PmBzPfWeFRQZuyR4agi7NMHIzs66uTA7CY/s1600-h/2891789396_4ac6a4ba40.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5257075762073454482" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8b0Bz4mFDC9AZ-xIW9vLE7e6MmAemA1NhEKmuKEgSybxtCtNw-pETHR5dwtKOHFX8o4PGNbxBIvIQAsf9J4vF5UcOPg8avKIhnrCmvTR47PmBzPfWeFRQZuyR4agi7NMHIzs66uTA7CY/s400/2891789396_4ac6a4ba40.jpg" border="0" /></a>Tomorrow's debate is entirely focused on issues related to the economy. <div><p></p>Recall that the Obama campaign pushed hard to have the first debate in Tennessee changed from the economy to foreign policy issues. At the time, for political nerds like me, it seemed odd for them to want to start the debates within what was perceived to be Obama's weaker policy realm. But Obama nailed that debate. Even more importantly, that debate solidified his standing on trust and leadership traits with voters. <p></p>Now, Obama has the stronger turf ready for the taking tomorrow night. I suspect that this final debate will have the most viewers, and as the last major joint appearance it will provide the final series of soundbites and clips that voters will be exposed to right up until Election Day.<br /><br />There's always risk involved, but making this the economic debate minimized Obama's risks. <p></p>That's some darn good strategy. Finally, a Democrat that wants to win big.</div>Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-11229179100247415312008-10-14T09:55:00.000-07:002008-10-14T10:21:40.492-07:00Frum PuddingLast night on <em>Rachel Maddow</em> the "conservative" writer David Frum was a guest. By all accounts, Frum was asked to come onto the show to discuss the state of political discourse in light of McCain and Palin's recent crowd troubles (not the size lies, but the mob chants).</p>Instead, Frum decided to chastise Maddow's use of humor and sarcasm and to claim that by being smart and flip, she contributes to the poisonous political discourse. He equated her show with dirty politics. Frum was arrogant, oddly personal and rude. Maddow was the model of supreme restraint.<br /><br />But even worse is the disgusting irony lost in Frum's self-important rant-- Frum was demanding that the political discourse needed to be raised in America <em>while blatantly disrespecting someone</em>.<br /><br />That's modern American conservatism in the Age of Rove for you.<br /><br />The funniest aspect to this is that Maddow's show is probably the most calm, straightforward and sensible of any cable show out there. Unlike most other shows, it isn't about her ego but the facts.<br /><br />For evidence of Frum's sad ego, watch the clip from the show.</p><br /><iframe height="339" width="425" src="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/27171025#27171025" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-21364197909383535302008-10-14T09:24:00.000-07:002008-10-14T09:54:04.375-07:00Size Issues<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhChk17C-XnyG93NmXuPGsiGaEus-u6LSt9a2InT6inBuFOkw5gH9LDFbcbR0igEDC04SqtpBy6CKa9pCbDmciOFoQEKHSTO8wouWyMaRkeZS_qr7OYuELCF7ClZNjgt90niLdB8Nhjetc/s1600-h/sesame_street_count_dracula.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5257053486983860370" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhChk17C-XnyG93NmXuPGsiGaEus-u6LSt9a2InT6inBuFOkw5gH9LDFbcbR0igEDC04SqtpBy6CKa9pCbDmciOFoQEKHSTO8wouWyMaRkeZS_qr7OYuELCF7ClZNjgt90niLdB8Nhjetc/s400/sesame_street_count_dracula.jpg" border="0" /></a>More crowd size lies! <div><p></p>Looks like Mathematics is in the tank for Obama, my friends.</div><br /><div>McCain's campaign is <a href="http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/election_central_morning_round_183.php">fibbing about the size of rally crowds -- again</a>. The campaign claimed an impressive 20,000 showed up in Virginia Beach yesterday. But the actual venue where the rally was held allows a maximum of 16,000 people. And the local fire marshall (in the tank) says the crowd was about 12,000.</div><br /><div></div><div>Maybe Diebold tallies up the McCain rallies?</div>Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-3154570629712500182008-10-10T16:32:00.000-07:002008-10-10T16:42:58.034-07:00A Bridge to Somewhere<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy1zAe9BJbVK73akwIyxgBxxO8S82c7cnWcrijvKbNCj_RhM4XgNhpQkVf3qAiY8n2vAFUI347VbHfyZiAHGAqGzANA36LLVP8rg5anhaKCnW3ZuDsTByuPK12vcnE41oxIfyvGnO7VtE/s1600-h/DAVENPORT_IOWA.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5255674280118236466" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy1zAe9BJbVK73akwIyxgBxxO8S82c7cnWcrijvKbNCj_RhM4XgNhpQkVf3qAiY8n2vAFUI347VbHfyZiAHGAqGzANA36LLVP8rg5anhaKCnW3ZuDsTByuPK12vcnE41oxIfyvGnO7VtE/s400/DAVENPORT_IOWA.jpg" border="0" /></a>Enjoy your visit to lovely Davenport, Iowa tomorrow Senator McCain!<br /><div><div><br /><p></p>As you can see, Senator, another poll out today solidly confirms that the birthplace of Joe Justice is not interested in you. Another recent poll shows the same, sad story. Hawkeyes do not like phony Mavericks. </div><br /><div>IA-President Oct 10 <a href="http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1acf389c-6fca-469e-9f9c-55b502cd98aa">SurveyUSA</a> Obama (D) 54%, McCain (R) 41% </div><div><br />IA-President Oct 1 <a href="http://www.kcci.com/politics/17598982/detail.html">Res. 2000</a> Obama (D) 55%, McCain (R) 39% </p>But what a place to kill some time! I'd suggest a stop at Rudy's Tacos. And you're old so you love ice cream, right? Be sure to hit <a href="http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://lh3.ggpht.com/_k4ZCk0Y8_gc/R210HDs1cLI/AAAAAAAAAEE/hOvF6zLH_qs/Ice%2BCream.jpg&imgrefurl=http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/G1rOhnxLikJk8N5zt2JAng&h=549&w=765&sz=16&hl=en&start=8&um=1&usg=__Xy48Hjpd7oyM66bsDykYkihcSOQ=&tbnid=97M3ODHvtjpGTM:&tbnh=102&tbnw=142&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dwhitey%2527s%2Bice%2Bcream%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26safe%3Doff">Whitey's Ice Cream </a>(what an ironic stop for you, in light of the race-tinged campaign you are waging!).<br /></div><div><p></p>Have a great weekend.</div></div>Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-90694094119414776712008-10-10T10:34:00.000-07:002008-10-10T14:48:37.761-07:00Taking Chances<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5T6HYI75w3pzYMBX7M44ph6uaFoXra_KW7H6RSZrJfhUSH0YVx2Z-xRcK8AobJhqeRGdOrO2svFA2b_lpMqSRMivAA2QEJSCnGP5JxI0itAWwbAWEjFX3L8mHFyYz1QOo1balPYwhDec/s1600-h/080211_change.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5255642765325301394" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5T6HYI75w3pzYMBX7M44ph6uaFoXra_KW7H6RSZrJfhUSH0YVx2Z-xRcK8AobJhqeRGdOrO2svFA2b_lpMqSRMivAA2QEJSCnGP5JxI0itAWwbAWEjFX3L8mHFyYz1QOo1balPYwhDec/s400/080211_change.jpg" border="0" /></a>Today's <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/id/163339"><em>Newsweek</em> poll </a>has Obama surging over McCain with an eleven point lead, 52% to 41%. This closely mirrors what Gallup's daily monitoring for the week has shown.<br /><div></div><br /><div>But the real significant item about the poll is this: "An astounding 86 percent of voters now say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States..." which leads to this: "Asked which ticket they thought was most likely to bring about change if elected, voters said Obama-Biden over McCain-Palin 52 percent to 37 percent. A month ago, Obama-Biden led by only five points, 47 percent to 42 percent."</div><br /><div>This raises an interesting aspect to Obama's momentum as of late-- it's just as connected to the concept of change as it is to the spiralling economy.</div><br /><div>Which suggests that all of these "the only thing that can save McCain is a terrorist attack" stories and their ilk that I'm reading all over the web might be missing a deeper, larger shift among the voters. If Obama's current trending is actually based, in part, on the powerful and inherent message of change he represents, it is far from certain a major foreign policy disaster at home or abroad would bring the Rovian jolt to the race McCain needs. </div><br /><div>The dominating mood reflected by this <em>Newsweek </em>polling reminds me of an interchange I read from <a href="http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1848469,00.html">a <em>Time </em>magazine reporter</a> recently talking to folks down in Northwest Missouri: <p></p><span style="color:#000099;">I soon gathered that six of the eight adults standing in that driveway planned to vote for Obama in November. Their support ranged from enthusiastic to reluctant. And of course, there's nothing scientific about one driveway. But I heard similar things throughout my trip. Among white voters, Obama appeared to be rising on a pile of empty wallets. Many folks in Lincoln County shared that impression. <p></p>"Who do you think will win around here?" I asked. <p></p>"Obama," Robbie Haggard answered flatly, and several others agreed. <p></p>"But Missouri's always been Republican," Pyle protested. <p></p>"I think Missouri's had about enough," Holly Haggard said.</span> </div>Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-16383951125293373442008-10-10T09:28:00.000-07:002008-10-10T10:21:03.942-07:00Happy Birthday Mom!<a href="http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/historical/marshalltown_io_1919.jpg"><img style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/historical/marshalltown_io_1919.jpg" border="0" /></a>Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3895198612922282843.post-29804977416739966142008-10-09T11:59:00.000-07:002008-10-09T12:50:16.971-07:00Desperate Louse Lies<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDjh6H_0oc0wW4ZzZo5jp6M2zcKS1xTRvfjEtBQ6Jja95wGM7yQtM2dDn1VVd60IZKvfNbrNjWpuZSP5c4BzAzBrfEX5Ken4aWiUN6uW3DVrHOHqp4SUbr_nV7iuLnlDcXW7cvx7lnCsI/s1600-h/mccain0508.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5255238236601210210" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; CURSOR: hand" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDjh6H_0oc0wW4ZzZo5jp6M2zcKS1xTRvfjEtBQ6Jja95wGM7yQtM2dDn1VVd60IZKvfNbrNjWpuZSP5c4BzAzBrfEX5Ken4aWiUN6uW3DVrHOHqp4SUbr_nV7iuLnlDcXW7cvx7lnCsI/s320/mccain0508.jpg" border="0" /></a>Today Barack Obama is smartly taunting grumpy Gramps McCain for his unwillingness to utter his many recent character attacks straight to Obama's face. It is yet another undeniable example of the poetic reversal of rhetorical fortunes that has taken place between the political parties since 2004. <p></p>Abject failure on all policy levels is hard to hide with fear or smear. <p></p>And McCain's recent failure (<a href="http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/223116.php">Josh Marshall is calling it "cowardice", </a>which may be apt) to confront Obama on the side issues of past associations-- or whatever sludge that is the Republican's trade-- during the 2nd debate is pretty striking. McCain obviously surmises that the voters are not interested in these things <em>(in public</em>, that is)<em>.</em> McCain surely knows that raising them directly during a Presidential debate threatens to stink up the already moldy Maverick brand McCain once clung to. <p></p>As they say in the Midwest, and maybe even in Alaska, "put up or shut up." <p></p>And so in the rational world, McCain lost his shot. The debate in Tennessee was a last chance lost. Of course, we all think, John McCain cannot bring these "issues" up in the final debate. In his last major audience with the country, such a move seems like a false one, a bad one. As Americans bear down and tune in and take the election semi-seriously, McCain cannot afford to spoon feed the electorate with such dirty distractions. It would leave a final, bitter after taste in the mouths of voters that no candidate can serve up in the final days of a campaign, not if victory is desired. <p></p>Right? <p></p>Well, hold on. Throughout the past many weeks, John McCain has proven he operates in a non-rational world. He is not a serious person. It is not beneath him to bluntly disrespect the country he claims to place first. He blatantly lies about facts easily righted with a brain and a Google. He runs silly political ads comparing a fellow United States Senator to a whack pop star, or even worse claiming this fellow Senator (a father of young girls) supports sex education for little children. He bows to advisor pressure and selects an unprepared, anti-knowledge running mate with a grossly oversized sense of self. He fake suspends his campaign and rushes to Washington... for an expensive dinner with the self-impressed Liebermans. He jokes about hair plugs during a debate. He <a href="http://www.whotv.com/Global/story.asp?S=9144497">still thinks he can win Iowa</a>. Etc. <p></p>So next Wednesday, I wouldn't put it past John McCain to bring along that barrel of monkeys (Ayers, Wright, and more). McCain has nothing left, and nothing left to lose. His recklessness is on record. <p></p>And if there is one thing John McCain has never missed an opportunity to remind us, it's that he isn't afraid to crash the plane.Joe Justicehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17874352223894960063noreply@blogger.com0