15 Days to Go

Using current polling and my fortunate, dual Joe Six-pack/Plumber political instinct, here is the current JJD Electoral College map (with my most conservative estimates made). Blue states are most likely Obama states. Yellow states are potential pick-ups. All in, Obama is already at 273 electoral votes with this map, surpassing the needed 270. The amazing aspect to this 273 number is that Obama arrives there without Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Missouri, which are all strong potential wins for him (and listed in descending order of likelihood to win).

All told, with the national polling at about 5+ points for Obama, and with the extremely good state polling news (he's consitently ahead in Virginia and even more ahead in Pennsylvania) Obama is sitting in a very comfortable driver's seat, especially if he wants to win big enough to avoid the vote machine problems and other shenanigans the GOP pulls out every time. In fact, with the various state combinations available to Obama, it is hard to see how McCain can pull this off unless he sweeps Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania.

That's a tall order for an angry old guy.

Update: John King on CNN said late this afternoon that McCain campaign sources consider both Iowa and New Mexico as battlegrounds already lost to Obama. The sources also conclude that Colorado is all but lost to Obama (which is interesting because they sent Palin there tonight). King reports that the McCain campaign is deciding to strongly contest Pennsylvania as part of their victory strategy. Polling for weeks in Pennsylvania has shown Obama with a 8-10 point lead. On a state-by-state level, McCain-Palin is slowly losing good options.